Climate Security in the Horn of Africa: Risk Assessment 2026

Climate shocks continue to interact with existing conflict drivers across the Horn of Africa, affecting livelihoods, migration patterns, and local governance arrangements.

This report presents findings from HOAIPS climate-security assessments and cross-border dialogue initiatives, highlighting hotspots where resource competition and weak institutions elevate risk.

The assessment recommends conflict-sensitive adaptation planning, improved data sharing among regional actors, and targeted support for community-level resilience.